Josh Oliver Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 1:12 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+730/-1000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (63.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings.
Josh Oliver is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends, catching a fantastic 85.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.
Josh Oliver grades out in the 88th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
After totaling 13.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Oliver has undergone a big decline this year, now boasting 3.0 per game.
Josh Oliver's 6.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 12.4.

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