Josh Oliver Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 5:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+870/-1250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect Josh Oliver to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (4.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.3% in games he has played).
After accumulating 13.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Oliver has been a disappointment this season, currently pacing 2.0 per game.
Josh Oliver's 5.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 12.4.