Josh Oliver Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 5, 2026 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The model projects Josh Oliver to earn 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
While Josh Oliver has garnered 4.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Minnesota's pass game in this week's contest at 15.0%.
With an excellent 82.9% Adjusted Catch% (75th percentile) this year, Josh Oliver has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Vikings to pass on 54.3% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have just 122.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 51.0 per game on average).
Josh Oliver profiles as one of the worst TE receiving threats this year, averaging just 1.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 20th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

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