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Josh Oliver

Josh Oliver Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Josh Oliver Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -147 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The model projects Josh Oliver to garner 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • The leading projections forecast Josh Oliver to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack in this game (15.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.0% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
  • With a feeble 1.1 adjusted catches per game (21st percentile) this year, Josh Oliver ranks as one of the worst pass-catching TEs in the NFL.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) to TEs this year (67.9%).
  • When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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