Josh Oliver Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 12:37 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -147 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Josh Oliver to garner 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The leading projections forecast Josh Oliver to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack in this game (15.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
With a feeble 1.1 adjusted catches per game (21st percentile) this year, Josh Oliver ranks as one of the worst pass-catching TEs in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) to TEs this year (67.9%).
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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