Josh Oliver Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 7, 2025 9:07 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
This year, the weak Commanders pass defense has allowed a massive 79.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been awful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
Josh Oliver's 17.1% Route Participation% this season shows a remarkable regression in his pass attack workload over last season's 32.7% mark.
Josh Oliver's receiving talent has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 0.9 adjusted receptions compared to 2.0 last year.

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