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Josh Oliver

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Josh Oliver Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+101/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Josh Oliver's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 83.2% to 87.5%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Josh Oliver's 17.6% Route Participation% this year shows a material drop-off in his passing offense utilization over last year's 32.7% mark.
  • After accruing 13.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Oliver has been a disappointment this season, currently averaging 3.0 per game.
  • Josh Oliver has posted substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (24.0).
  • The Chargers defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 38.0) versus tight ends this year.

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