Josh Oliver Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 12:37 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-103/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Josh Oliver to garner 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The leading projections forecast Josh Oliver to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack in this game (15.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
Josh Oliver has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (3.0 per game) than he did last season (13.0 per game).
Josh Oliver's 14.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season illustrates a noteworthy decrease in his receiving skills over last season's 24.0 rate.
Josh Oliver's skills in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.45 figure last season.

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