Josh Oliver Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 7, 2025 9:07 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
With a stellar 4.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Oliver places as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL in space.
The Washington Commanders defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (68.0) versus TEs this year.
This year, the porous Commanders defense has been torched for the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a whopping 9.69 yards.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been awful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
Josh Oliver's 17.1% Route Participation% this season shows a remarkable regression in his pass attack workload over last season's 32.7% mark.
After accumulating 13.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Oliver has produced significantly fewer this season, currently sitting at 1.0 per game.
Josh Oliver has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (10.0) this season than he did last season (24.0).

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