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Josh Oliver

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Josh Oliver checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in a terrific 83.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

With a terrific 10.3 adjusted yards per target (96th percentile) last year, Josh Oliver rates among the leading pass-catching tight ends in football.

Josh Oliver checks in as one of the leading TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.45 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while checking in at the 79th percentile.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against TEs last year, surrendering 9.06 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 57.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

Minnesota's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 30.6 per game) last year.

When it comes to safeties getting after the quarterback, Chicago's collection of safeties has been tremendous last year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

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