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Josh Oliver

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Josh Oliver Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 69.0% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
  • The Minnesota O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
  • After averaging 13.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Oliver has undergone a big decline this season, now sitting at 6.0 per game.
  • This year, the stout 49ers defense has surrendered a meager 54.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in football.
  • This year, the imposing San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a measly 4.5 yards.

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