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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-132/+126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +126 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +126.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.

The model projects Josh Jacobs to be a more important option in his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (7.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been torched for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.2%) to RBs this year (88.2%).

This year, the strong Steelers run defense has surrendered a measly 0.67 TDs on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 10th-best rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

The Green Bay Packers rank as the 7th-most run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 54.5% red zone run rate.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the predictive model to run only 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.

Josh Jacobs has garnered 81.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Josh Jacobs has notched a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 17th percentile when it comes to running backs.

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