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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-230/+200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the end zone in this week's game (8.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

The Bengals defense has been gouged for the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to running backs: 0.80 per game this year.

The Bengals safeties project as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Packers are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The model projects the Packers to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Packers have been the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 52.0% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.05 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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