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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-152/+132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers will be starting backup QB Clayton Tune in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Josh Jacobs slots into the 83rd percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a colossal 14.8 figure this year.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in football against the Bears defense this year (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the porous Chicago Bears defense has conceded a whopping 0.29 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the largest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 51.5% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL in this setting has been the Green Bay Packers.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (just 54.9 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

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