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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-119/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -119.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
  • Josh Jacobs's 15.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 84th percentile for running backs.
  • This year, the stout Denver Broncos run defense has yielded a puny 0.69 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 54.6% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in football under these circumstances has been the Green Bay Packers.
  • Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Green Bay Packers.
  • Out of all RBs, Josh Jacobs ranks in the 95th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, taking on 67.7% of the workload in his team's run game near the end zone.
  • In regards to air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in just the 10th percentile among running backs this year, totaling just -5.0 per game.
  • Josh Jacobs's 82.6% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a noteable decline in his receiving skills over last season's 88.4% mark.

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