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Josh Jacobs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-124/+109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -124.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Josh Jacobs rates in the 88th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a superb 16.7 mark this year.

The Lions linebackers profile as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year with their run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 55.1% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL in these situations has been the Green Bay Packers.

The projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Among all RBs, Josh Jacobs ranks in the 96th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, accounting for 70.7% of the usage in his offense's running game near the goal line.

Josh Jacobs has compiled a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 8th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Josh Jacobs's 80.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a significant drop-off in his receiving ability over last year's 88.5% mark.

More Josh Jacobs Player Props

Josh Jacobs TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13