Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 14.4 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 94 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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