Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 82.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 81.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 22.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this year (87.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 4.36 yards-per-carry.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.