Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 90.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 90.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 90.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 19.5 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his team's run game this season (87.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Josh Jacobs has rushed for a lot more yards per game (106.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used some form of misdirection on just 40.7% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.