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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-187).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 44.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Josh Jacobs has rushed for 0.56 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in football among running backs (92nd percentile).

Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-most TDs in the NFL (1.29 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the end zone this week (51.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (63.3% in games he has played).

The Los Angeles Chargers safeties grade out as the 8th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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