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Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.Our trusted projections expect Josh Jacobs to total 3.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 12.8% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.With an impressive 1.9 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs ranks as one of the top pass-game RBs in the league.The Bengals linebackers project as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 14-point advantage, the Packers are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.The model projects the Packers to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The model projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.05 seconds per snap.The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
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