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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers will be starting backup QB Clayton Tune in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • In this game, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 92nd percentile among running backs with 3.2 targets.
  • With a high 10.3% Target Rate (85th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs rates among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
  • Josh Jacobs profiles as one of the best pass-game RBs this year, averaging an excellent 2.2 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (just 54.9 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
  • The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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