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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-188/+146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +146.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
  • In this game, Josh Jacobs is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 85th percentile among RBs with 3.4 targets.
  • Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.1% this year, which places him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • With an excellent 2.4 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs ranks among the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Green Bay Packers.
  • Josh Jacobs's 82.6% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a noteable decline in his receiving skills over last season's 88.4% mark.
  • The Broncos pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.3%) to RBs this year (70.3%).
  • As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Denver's collection of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 10th-best in football.

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