Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 8, 2025 1:07 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+146/-153).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.
This week, Josh Jacobs is forecasted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 81st percentile among RBs with 3.2 targets.
Josh Jacobs has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.3% this year, which ranks in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With an impressive 2.4 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs ranks among the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL.
The Bears linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Packers being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 53.9% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Packers to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Josh Jacobs's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 88.4% to 81.5%.

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