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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to earn 3.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Josh Jacobs has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 12.1% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • Josh Jacobs's 80.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a significant drop-off in his receiving ability over last year's 88.5% mark.
  • The Lions pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.8%) vs. running backs this year (78.8%).
  • When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Detroit's group of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

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