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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-172/+136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -205 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -172.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
  • The model projects Josh Jacobs to notch 4.0 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
  • Josh Jacobs's 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 12.8.
  • The Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Josh Jacobs comes in as one of the leading RB receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 2.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Packers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 5th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Packers.
  • The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Josh Jacobs's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 88.4% to 80.8%.

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