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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense last year: 4th-most in the league.

With a sizeable 46.4% Route% (77th percentile) last year, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in the league.

This week, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the model to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.0 targets.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.1 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.

The 5th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional last year, grading out as the best in the league.

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