Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 7, 2024 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Packers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Eagles defense has been something of pass funnel last year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.8 per game) last year.
In this contest, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the model to land in the 87th percentile among RBs with 3.5 targets.
Josh Jacobs's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 93rd percentile for RBs.
With an excellent 2.8 adjusted receptions per game (80th percentile) last year, Josh Jacobs rates among the best RB receiving threats in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Green Bay Packers last year (a measly 56.8 per game on average).
Josh Jacobs rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to RBs, completing a measly 69.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 5th percentile.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of safeties has been excellent last year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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