Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+152/-214).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -214.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Josh Jacobs has been among the best running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.6 receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a less important option in his offense's pass game this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.5% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.