Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2025

Updated Sep 12, 2025 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-113/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
With an extraordinary 47.6% Route Participation% (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs places among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the league.
In this week's game, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 79th percentile among RBs with 3.1 targets.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Packers ranks as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season.
With a fantastic 18.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the leading pass-game RBs in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
The predictive model expects the Packers to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.0 per game) since the start of last season.
As it relates to air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in just the 10th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing just -3.0 per game.