Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 17, 2025 2:12 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The model projects Josh Jacobs to notch 4.0 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs's 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 12.8.
The Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
With an outstanding 23.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (93rd percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs ranks among the leading pass-catching running backs in the league.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Packers are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 5th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Packers.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Josh Jacobs has totaled a measly -6.0 air yards per game this year: just 7th percentile when it comes to RBs.

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