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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+115/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.

The model projects Josh Jacobs to earn 3.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.

When it comes to air yards, Josh Jacobs grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 3.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

Josh Jacobs has been one of the worst possession receivers in football among running backs, catching a mere 69.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 2nd percentile.

Since the start of last season, the tough Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing running backs: a puny 5.1 yards.

The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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