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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers will be forced to use backup QB Malik Willis in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 12.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 88th percentile among RBs.

When talking about air yards, Josh Jacobs grades out in the towering 95th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accruing a whopping 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

With a stellar 21.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the best RB receiving threats in the league.

When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Tennessee's group of DEs has been terrible since the start of last season, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Packers to pass on 49.3% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Josh Jacobs has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, catching a measly 69.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 2nd percentile.

The Tennessee Titans defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

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