Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 24, 2024 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 137.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 49.9% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Green Bay Packers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
In regards to air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in the measly 12th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -3.0 per game.
Josh Jacobs's 13.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 20.5.

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