Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+100/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 3.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 88th percentile for running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Josh Jacobs has been among the best RB receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 24.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Josh Jacobs has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching an impressive 85.9% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 31.0) vs. RBs this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.