Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to garner 20.4 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Josh Jacobs has garnered 80.0% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Raiders to be the 11th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 40.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.

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