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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
  • The Steelers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.7 per game) this year.
  • With a high 21.2% Red Zone Target Share (84th percentile) this year, Josh Downs stands as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the best in the league this year.
  • Josh Downs's 79.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a material improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 70.6% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Right now, the 3rd-most run-focused team in football near the end zone (49.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Colts.
  • The Colts have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
  • Josh Downs has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).
  • Josh Downs's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 50.9.

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