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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+290/-335).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +290 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +290.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.
  • Josh Downs has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.4% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Indianapolis offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Josh Downs's 77.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a material progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 70.6% rate.
  • The Chargers defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 3rd-most run-oriented team in the NFL in the red zone (50.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Colts.
  • The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.09 seconds per play.
  • After averaging 49.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Downs has gotten worse this season, now sitting at 41.0 per game.
  • Josh Downs's 39.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 50.9.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the league vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (64.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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