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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+345/-540).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -425 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -540.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.
  • The Rams defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.15 per game since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Colts to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 50.5% red zone run rate.
  • Josh Downs grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
  • The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (61.0%).

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