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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-450).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -435 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -450.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts may lean on the pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Philip Rivers.
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (40.3 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone run rate.
  • The Colts have run the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.
  • Josh Downs has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (49.0 per game).
  • Josh Downs's 39.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 50.9.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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