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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+370/-550).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +400 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +370.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
  • Josh Downs has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.3% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 10th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a measly 54.9 per game on average).
  • After accruing 49.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Downs has significantly declined this season, now boasting 38.0 per game.

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