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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+650/-1150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +670 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +650.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Philip Rivers in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • At a -13-point disadvantage, the Colts are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
  • The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
  • With a top-tier 22.0% Red Zone Target% (87th percentile) this year, Josh Downs ranks among the WRs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.
  • The Colts offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 4th-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (49.2% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Colts.
  • The leading projections forecast the Colts to run the 4th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Colts have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.8 plays per game.
  • After averaging 49.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Downs has been a disappointment this year, now pacing 38.0 per game.
  • Josh Downs's 36.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 50.9.

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