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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+335/-390).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -430 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -390.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • With a top-tier 20.8% Red Zone Target% (84th percentile) this year, Josh Downs places among the wide receivers with the highest volume near the end zone in football.
  • The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • Josh Downs rates as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, completing an outstanding 70.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Colts being a 3-point favorite this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.4% red zone run rate.
  • The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
  • After accruing 49.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Downs has seen a big downtick this year, now pacing 39.0 per game.
  • Josh Downs's 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 50.9.

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