My Account Log Out
 
 
Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-475).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -490 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -475.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Josh Downs has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 22.0% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile among WRs.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in the league this year.
  • Josh Downs's 74.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 70.6% rate.
  • Josh Downs grades out in the 75th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.30 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.1% red zone run rate.
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the model to run just 64.2 total plays in this contest: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
  • After totaling 49.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Downs has fallen off this season, now pacing 39.0 per game.
  • Josh Downs's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 50.9.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™