My Account Log Out
 
 
Josh Downs

Josh Downs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +295 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +270.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Colts to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Josh Downs has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 22.5% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Josh Downs's 75.4% Adjusted Catch% this year marks an impressive growth in his receiving talent over last year's 70.6% rate.
  • Josh Downs ranks in the 80th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.30 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Colts are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.3% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.4 per game) this year.
  • After averaging 49.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Downs has regressed heavily this season, now pacing 43.0 per game.
  • Josh Downs's 38.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 50.9.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™