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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-210/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are predicted by the predictive model to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Josh Downs's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 70.6% to 73.7%.
  • The Raiders pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (74.5%) to wide receivers this year (74.5%).
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Las Vegas's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 6.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 54.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • Josh Downs's 16.1% Target Rate this year shows a substantial diminishment in his air attack volume over last year's 25.8% rate.
  • Josh Downs's receiving skills have worsened this season, notching a mere 2.8 adjusted catches compared to 5.1 last season.

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