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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Josh Downs's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 70.6% to 73.7%.

The Raiders pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (74.5%) to wide receivers this year (74.5%).

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Las Vegas's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 6.5 points.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 55.0% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Colts offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.07 seconds per snap.

Josh Downs's 16.1% Target Rate this year shows a substantial diminishment in his air attack volume over last year's 25.8% rate.

Josh Downs's receiving skills have worsened this season, notching a mere 2.8 adjusted catches compared to 5.1 last season.

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