My Account Log Out
 
 
Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-127/+121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -127.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
  • With an exceptional 24.1% Target% (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Downs places among the wide receivers with the highest volume in the NFL.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Indianapolis Colts.
  • Josh Downs's 2.5 adjusted catches per game this year shows a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 5.1 rate.
  • The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (61.0%).
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, projecting as the 4th-best in football.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™