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Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-129/+113).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +113.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.Opposing offenses have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Broncos defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.The Indianapolis offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.With a fantastic 4.9 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Downs places as one of the leading wide receivers in the game in football.Josh Downs grades out as one of the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in a remarkable 70.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 76th percentile among WRs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Indianapolis Colts.While Josh Downs has earned 24.7% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Indianapolis's passing offense in this contest at 19.0%.When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Denver's unit has been very good since the start of last season, grading out as the best in football.
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