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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+132/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -139.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
  • The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • Josh Downs comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, completing a fantastic 71.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 10th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a measly 54.9 per game on average).
  • Josh Downs's 17.1% Target Share this year reflects a substantial reduction in his pass game workload over last year's 25.8% figure.
  • Josh Downs's 3.2 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a material diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 5.1 mark.

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