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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+155/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +155.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Philip Rivers in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • At a -13-point disadvantage, the Colts are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
  • The Colts rank as the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.2% pass rate.
  • The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
  • The Colts offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Colts to run the 4th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Colts have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.8 plays per game.
  • Josh Downs's 17.2% Target Share this season marks a meaningful reduction in his passing offense utilization over last season's 25.8% rate.
  • Josh Downs's 3.4 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteable drop-off in his receiving ability over last year's 5.1 mark.
  • The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (58.1%) versus wideouts this year (58.1%).

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