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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-134/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 63.4% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL has been the Colts.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.
  • The Colts offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.7 plays per game.
  • Josh Downs has been a much smaller part of his team's passing attack this season (17.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.8%).
  • Josh Downs's play as a receiver has declined this season, averaging just 3.3 adjusted catches compared to 5.1 last season.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (59%) to wideouts this year (59.0%).

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